Monday, August 28, 2006

Reshaping the Middle-East... indeed.

The Economist this week:
The removal of the fiercely Sunni Taliban has allowed Iran to form valuable alliances with its fellow Shias in Afghanistan. Thanks to America's reorganisation of Iraq in favour of its Shia majority and the Islamic Republic's successful cultivation of the new elite there, Iran has a degree of influence to its west that it has not enjoyed since it lost its Mesopotamian possessions in the 17th century.
It is likely that if things do not improve in Iraq - and I don't see how they will - and whenever the US troops leave, we will see the partition of Iraq in 3 regions (Kurdish, Shiia and Sunni) along the following ethnic lines.

It may not happen right away. Since Bush said that even though the war in Iraq is "straining the psyche of our country", "We're not leaving, so long as I'm the president.", it is likely to continue on like this for the next 2 years. But it is probably just a question of time before we see the partition of Iraq. Clearly, that will make Iran the most powerful country in the region.


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